The Decision Defensibility Check
Could this decision withstand challenge?
Use these questions to identify where confidence may be stronger than the evidence supporting it.
- 01
Evidence quality
What evidence, beyond internal reporting, supports the confidence behind this decision?
- 02
Stakeholder proximity
When did you last hear directly from the stakeholders most affected, rather than through an intermediary?
- 03
Assumption expiry
Which of the assumptions this decision relies on have not been retested since it was approved?
- 04
External validation
Has anyone outside the team that built this case been asked to challenge it?
- 05
Challenge and dissent
Was genuine dissent raised and recorded, or did the group converge too quickly?
- 06
Ownership
If this decision is challenged in twelve months, who is accountable for defending it?
- 07
Audit trail
Could you reconstruct, from the record alone, why this decision was made?
- 08
Consequences of error
What would it cost, financially, regulatorily or reputationally, if the central assumption turned out to be wrong?
Guides that help you test this
Assumption Risk in Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide
This guide explains how to identify, test, and manage assumption risk in strategic planning, the single biggest source of avoidable failure in board-level decisions. After reading, you will be able to audit any strategic plan for hidden assumptions and put controls in place before they become losses.
The Limitations of Relying on Internal Consensus: A Practical Guide
This guide sets out the specific limitations of relying on internal consensus when making strategic decisions in regulated firms. After reading it, you will be able to identify where consensus is misleading you, what to substitute for it, and how to structure decisions so agreement does not masquerade as evidence.
Internal Consensus Risk in Strategic Decisions: A Practical Guide
This guide explains internal consensus risk, the danger that agreement inside a leadership team masks flawed strategic decisions, and shows senior leaders how to detect and counter it. After reading, you will know how to identify when consensus is manufactured, how to design decision processes that surface real disagreement, and when to bring in outside challenge.
Leadership Blind Spots in Major Decisions: A Practical Guide
This guide identifies the specific blind spots that distort major decisions at the top of financial services firms and explains how to surface them before they cause damage. After reading, senior leaders will be able to diagnose their own decision weaknesses and build practical countermeasures into how their executive teams work.