The Decision Defensibility Check
Could this decision withstand challenge?
Use these questions to identify where confidence may be stronger than the evidence supporting it.
- 01
Evidence quality
What evidence, beyond internal reporting, supports the confidence behind this decision?
- 02
Stakeholder proximity
When did you last hear directly from the stakeholders most affected, rather than through an intermediary?
- 03
Assumption expiry
Which of the assumptions this decision relies on have not been retested since it was approved?
- 04
External validation
Has anyone outside the team that built this case been asked to challenge it?
- 05
Challenge and dissent
Was genuine dissent raised and recorded, or did the group converge too quickly?
- 06
Ownership
If this decision is challenged in twelve months, who is accountable for defending it?
- 07
Audit trail
Could you reconstruct, from the record alone, why this decision was made?
- 08
Consequences of error
What would it cost, financially, regulatorily or reputationally, if the central assumption turned out to be wrong?
Guides that help you test this
How to Manage Assumption Risk in Strategic Planning
This guide explains how senior leaders in financial services should identify, test, and govern the assumptions underpinning their strategic plans. After reading, you will know how to surface fragile assumptions early, build challenge into the planning cycle, and prevent avoidable strategic failure.
The Limitations of Relying on Internal Consensus: A Guide for Senior Leaders
This guide sets out why internal consensus is a poor proxy for external reality, and where it systematically misleads senior decision-makers in financial services. After reading it, you will be able to identify when your leadership team's agreement is masking risk, and know what to do about it.
Assumption Risk in Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide
This guide explains what assumption risk is, why it quietly undermines strategic plans in financial services, and how to identify, test, and govern the assumptions that matter most. After reading, you will be able to run a structured assumption audit on any strategic plan and put controls in place before those assumptions drive material decisions.
How to Manage Internal Consensus Risk in Strategic Decisions
This guide explains how internal consensus becomes a source of strategic risk in banks, insurers and asset managers, and how senior leaders can spot and counter it. After reading, you will have a practical method for stress-testing agreement before it hardens into a decision you regret.